Mitigating Factors Counterterrorism Illinois Isi
It is your job, as an analyst, to determine the nature of a specific potential national security threat to the US homeland or US interests abroad.Threats are assessed along two axes: the probability of a threat becoming a reality for the US or its interests overseas and the likely level of damage caused by such an attack or issue.
The level of threat is a function of a combination of factors.The desire of the group to attack a target, the capability of the group to hit a target, and the factors that stand in the way of the group to successfully hit its target (known as mitigating factors).Counterterrorism analysts determine threats to the US and interests by looking at this combination of factors.This mix of factors can be expressed in the following formula:
Threat (f)=desire of enemy to attack+ capabilities of enemy- mitigating factors
Thus, to do a useful threat assessment, the analyst must determine how much the enemy desires to attack, what capabilities the enemy has to attack, and what factors stand in the way of the enemy to attack.The analyst wants to be able to answer two questions:
What is the probability that the adversary will attack?
What damage would the adversary do to the US or its interests if did attack?
You need to cite the evidence that you use in your brief!This is a huge part of an intelligence analyst’s responsibility.Obviously, not all intelligence is of equal reliability and value.The highly-placed source in ISIL is a better intel source than some farmer who saw ISIL pass through his fields.By citing your sources, you convey what quality of information you are using.Use the source-citing method that is shown in the sample brief I have provided.